/* Describe your code here */ @doc("From wikipedia unless otherwise stated") years = { scirev: 1687-1543, indrev: 1840-1760, internet: 1995-1965 // A guess }
import "hub:berekuk/recursion" as recursion /* Describe your code here */ // Configuration roadLength = 20 lightCoord = 10 maxCars = 50 // Probability of a car spawning at each time step for each light
/* * Cost-effectiveness analysis for Uganda Community Farm's grain cleaning facility */ /* * Model Inputs */ // As of 2024-05-24 gbp_to_usd :: usd/gbp = 1.27
// h/t to Ozzie! @name("Naive Population Probability (Assuming Homogeneity)") @doc("Assumes all individuals have the same probability of performing action Z") @startClosed naivePopulationProbability(individualProbability, populationSize) = 1 - (1 - individualProbability) ^ populationSize @name("Simulated Population Probability (Accounting for Heterogeneity)") @doc(
op_ppl = (40M to 120M) / (70k to 200k) sff_ppl = (40M to 60M) / (70k to 200k) fli_ppl = (1M to 30M) / (50k to 150k) ltff_ppl = (3M to 7M) / (50k to 150k) longview_ppl = (2M to 15M) / (50k to 150k) manifund_ppl = (1M to 3M) / (30k to 200k) small_funders_ppl = (5M to 40M) / (60k to 200k) individual_funders_ppl = (5M to 40M) / (60k to 100k) nsf_ppl = 5M / (40k to 150k) dsit_ppl = (2M to 10.8M) / (40k to 100k)
million = 10^6 billion = 10^9 a = 250 * million to 25 * billion b = 200 * million to 7.5 * billion c = 2 to 4 d = 1 to 4 benefit = (a+b)*c*d
/* Modeling the probability and severity of volcanic cooling events Like my other model, but uses geomean of odds to calculate final probabilities, rather than geomean of probabilities */ // Method 1: Based on the assumption that (A) 1+ degree cooling events happen with a period of 150 years, (B) 1.5+ degree cooling events happen with a period of 500 years, and (C) 2+ degree cooling events happen with a period of 3000 years [Source: Fig. 1d from Stoffel et al. (2015): https://dendrolab.ch/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Stoffel_etal_NGEO_2015.pdf] // Construct four models, two exponential and two power-law, and use a mixture of all four models. // Incorporate uncertainty into the relative frequency of 1, 1.5 and 2-degree cooling events. 1.5-degree cooling events represent approximately 30% of 1-degree cooling events, and 2-degree cooling events represent approximately 5% of 1-degree cooling events. I intruduce a subjective amount of uncertainty to these figures such that the 95th percentile is approximately 2x the mean: