Updated

·

0.5s

// Background params bps = 10k bps_per_bn_bar = 0.5 to 50 // OP rough bar // How much risk is at stake? bio_x_risk = 0.1% to 10% // biorisk during 30 year risk window, from ASB aerosolisation_rate = 1% to 50% // placeholder infections_in_workplace = 30% to 90% // placeholder non_redundant_infections = 30% to 70% // placeholder addressable_bio_x_risk = aerosolisation_rate*infections_in_workplace*non_redundant_infections*bio_x_risk

1 variables

·

Updated

·

0.5s

/* How long does it take to read different books? How much does that cost, in counterfactual value, assuming that reading time is counterfactually valuable? This is a very simple table of estimates. Inspired by a previous Guesstimate model. */ @hide cost(wpm, valuePerHour, words) = { wordsPerHour = wpm * 120 words * (valuePerHour / wordsPerHour)

Updated

·

0.3s

/* Boba shop sales */ openMinutes = 9.5 * 60 bobasPerMinute = 0.5 to 1 // needs further investigation pricePerBoba = 5.5 to 7.25 // could use a bit more precision bobaPerDay = bobasPerMinute * openMinutes

Updated

·

0.4s

// Datos del Hospital Parroquial de San Bernardo @name("Superficie del Hospital") @doc("Superficie del Hospital Parroquial de San Bernardo en metros cuadrados.") superficieHospital = 15000 // m² @name("Número de Camas") @doc("Número total de camas disponibles en el Hospital Parroquial de San Bernardo.") numCamas = 168

Updated

·

0.4s

/* Identical to my nuclear winter model [link below], excepting different, pessimistic assumptions about the number of detonations in a large-scale nuclear conflict. */ // https://squigglehub.org/models/StanP/Modeling-Nuclear-Winter-with-Uncertainty // Using the competing Reisner and Toon claims on the soot injection of a regional nuclear exchange as a basis, this model extrapolates to estimate the level of cooling expected from a nuclear war of at least 100 detonations. // Black carbon (known as BC or soot) in stratosphere from 100x15kT-warhead nuclear exchange (Tg), all strikes countervalue. Use the Toon estimate of 5Tg as the 95th percentile. Reisner estimates 0.2Tg, but claims this is an overestimate since they assume all combustible material is converted to BC, while the true amount would be 10-100 times less. Denkenberger & Pearce (2018) models the soot-emission factor as lognormally-distributed with 90% CI (1%,4%), which has mean value 2.2%. Hence our lower estimate, which we use as the 5th percentile, is 0.2Tg * 0.022 = 0.0044Tg

Updated

·

0.5s

/* https://docs.google.com/document/d/15tCLPcABYFRLwqx6hF2oV11bOcl7-Pa29r1H7h7oo_o/edit [restricted] Evaluating the cost effectiveness of adding straw bedding (shortened as EE - environmental enrichment) on pig welfare. Unmodeled assumptions: 1. The only outcome metric we look at is reduction in tail-biting injuries. (This seems likely to be the most important identifiable metric, and I'd be somewhat surprised [20%] if reduction in tail biting accounts for less than 10% of the impact) 2. Disregarding additional indirect effects */ number_of_pigs_in_eu = 120M to 150M // https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Agricultural_production_-_livestock_and_meat prevalence_ee_in_eu_now = beta(1,1) // not likely to be very close to 1

Updated

·

0.5s

/* Describe your code here */ // Case rate info annual_deaths = 60k to 150k //https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths_select_00 provisional cases in the last year: 65355 //https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases confirmed deaths over the last year 1.18m-1.12m = 60000 //https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7546/deaths-from-covid-19-per-year-2022-2025-in-us/ 130k forecasted per year 2022 to 2025