/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 4e18b994-b914-4b89-a72f-4e8f26e16503 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @doc( "Key assumption: A super pandemic could cause civilizational collapse primarily through disrupting essential services. The interventions aim to protect essential workers." ) inputs = { @doc(
m = 10^6 likelihood = 5% to 25% duration = 2 annual_likelihood = 1-(1-likelihood)^(1/duration) damages = 100*m to 1000*m us_multiplier = 29 / 3.6 gbp_usd = 0.8 // GDP per USD baseline_UK_damage = annual_likelihood * damages
@hide // units k = 10^3 m = 10^6 b = 10^9 // Level Of Experience n_skill_foreign_discount = beta(49.7510591728389, 2.3576183042092) // 90 to 99% n_skill_nonexpert = (350 * k to 500 * k) * n_skill_foreign_discount
/* Describe your code here How many needles can fit inside a standard street light pole */ a = normal(2, 5)
calendar_time = 0.5 to 4.5 // years technical_headcount = 20 to 50 time_share = 20% to 100% person_years_effort = time_share * technical_headcount * calendar_time
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 7ae97d33-8c3a-4d3d-8165-68dc599d98bb */ // Model for estimating impact of AI secret theft on China's capabilities import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @doc( "How much more efficient compute usage becomes with stolen AI research secrets" )
voll = 5.1 to 33.8 // $/kWh threshold = 1*10^11 // $ lost_load_kW = threshold / voll lost_load_TW = lost_load_kW / 10^9 total_us_consumption_TW = 4070
survey_2024 = 485 survey_growth = 0.5 to 3 survey_2025 = survey_2024 * survey_growth peer_2024 = 15 peer_growth = (1 to 1.5) * (2 to 4) peer_2025 = peer_2024 * peer_growth botec_2024 = 15 botec_growth = 0.5 to 4
//2015 and 2015 grid attacks calendar_time = 31/12 // years total_headcount = 10 to 50 // inc non-technical staff technical_headcount = 0.5 * total_headcount time_share_on_grid_attacks = 10% to 100% person_years_effort = time_share_on_grid_attacks * technical_headcount * calendar_time
//lower bound calendar_time = 3/12 to 3 // years technical_headcount = 5 to 20 time_share_on_Triton = 10% to 100% person_years_effort = time_share_on_Triton * technical_headcount * calendar_time
/* Model for RFI question https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1475-how-many-german-language-disinformation-cases-originating-in-pro-kremlin-media-will-there-be-between-1-october-2024-and-30-september-2025-compared-to-the-same-period-one-year-prior */ /* Define question info */ dateStartPeriod = Date.make(2024,10,01) dateEndPeriod = Date.make(2025,09,30) previousYearsCounts = [67, 14, 82, 78] /* Input latest data */
voll = 4 to 33.8 threshold = 10e10 lost_load_kW = threshold / voll lost_load_TW = lost_load_kW * 10e-9
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 8f909e0c-297d-4ec3-8ed3-9db3265bad13 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @doc("Program types for reference") programTypes = [ "OSP - Ordinary Student Program", "EOSP - Early Outreach Student Program", "C&N OSP - Community & Network OSP",
/* Horizon Scanning Foundry */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Foundry Program Model") startupPhases = { @name("Phase 1: Identify Promising Fields") @doc("Duration highly depends on field complexity and expert availability") identifyFields = {
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 19eea108-dd5d-4e0d-92a7-6d8c2b8fd3a3 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Vitamin D Supplementation Model") inputs = { @name("Probability of Vitamin D deficiency without testing") @doc( "Given seasonal depression and poor mood on gloomy days, there's a higher chance of deficiency than general population. This is highly uncertain and varies significantly based on:
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 0441c483-ba41-442e-aa4a-380a75d7a71b */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @doc( "A model to estimate when HotA will release their next castle after Cove and Factory" ) inputs = { @name("🏰 Release year of Cove")
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 5f59477a-f6e2-42d5-b05f-86af545e1d99 */ // Model estimating yearly probabilities of earthquakes of different magnitudes in Batumi, Georgia // Based on historical data and geological context from 1900-2024 import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest // == Model Parameters == inputs = {
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 9df73d49-59d1-4f10-b70e-f933f6af6ec6 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @doc("Model of potential outcomes for Armenia in 2025") inputs = { @name("Likelihood of Continued Hostilities (%)") @format(".0%") @doc(
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: e2bea2a9-a651-438c-bb2f-69035d416d39 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @hide test = sTest.test @hide describe = sTest.describe @hide