// How many dollars can be saved, if the problem is totally solved problem_size = lognormal(log(100), log(10)) + // journalists lognormal(log(1000), log(10)) + // news agencies lognormal(log(10), log(10)) // individuals // Chance that we manage to implement a deeper and higher-quality search better_tech = bernoulli(0.1) // Number of months till the feature is copied monopoly_time = lognormal(log(6), log(4))
me_danger = bernoulli(0.3) me = min(me_danger * (1 to 4) + (1 - me_danger) * (15 to 75), 90) ai_danger = bernoulli(0.5) ai = ai_danger * (4 to 27) + (1 - ai_danger) * 100 nuke_danger = bernoulli(0.04) nuke = nuke_danger * uniform(0, 60) + (1 - nuke_danger) * 100 climate_danger = bernoulli(0.2) climate = climate_danger * (10 to 40) + (1 - climate_danger) * 100 total = min(min(min(min(me, ai), nuke), climate), 60)