/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 593ecf75-b82a-47a3-b2a3-c3da65fab405 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Over-the-counter Statins: Lives Saved Estimation") @doc( "This model estimates the potential number of lives that could be saved annually by making statins available over-the-counter in the United States." ) inputs = {
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 185fde35-2068-4fa9-b73a-731e9448934b */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest // AI for Epistemics in Longtermism - Value Estimation Model // This model evaluates 10 AI applications for improving epistemics in longtermism @name("AI for Epistemics Applications") @doc(
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: ae912269-f78b-4ef8-ae1e-83849c4d2766 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest import "hub:ozziegooen/helpers" as helpers @name("Squiggle AI Improvement Ideas") @doc( "Model estimating expected benefits of 20 ideas to improve Squiggle AI for longtermist uses." )
import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest // Model for evaluating AI improvement ideas for longtermist purposes // Provides expected benefits across multiple metrics @name("Improvement Ideas for Squiggle AI (Longtermist Focus)") @doc( "Evaluates 20 potential improvements to Squiggle AI with a focus on longtermist uses. Benefits are estimated across multiple dimensions including technical capability, usability, and longtermist impact." ) ideas = [
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 1f625b11-b531-4b9f-950f-270aa0773700 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest // Model to estimate the impact of a $40k Tesla purchase on Tesla's market cap and Elon Musk's wealth @name("Market Impact Model Inputs") @doc( "Key inputs for estimating the impact of a single Tesla purchase on Tesla's market cap and Elon Musk's wealth" )
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 5d934fe2-c179-4d42-9916-e2405568071c */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Tesla Purchase Impact on Elon Musk's Wealth") @doc( "Calculates how much richer Elon Musk would become from a single Tesla purchase, based on his ownership stake and Tesla's profit margin" ) inputs = {
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 01c2effa-20d5-4c19-b9b4-fc21689a4073 */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Alcohol Consumption Model for 30yo Male in CA") inputs = { @name("Value of Life (QALY, USD)") @format("$,.0f") @doc(
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: cf52e02c-30e6-455d-a408-32966ffa645e */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @doc( "Key model parameters for costs/benefits analysis of EU directive 2019/904" ) inputs = { @name("Annual Plastic Bottle Production (EU)")
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 930a5832-f765-4431-8994-ca5b4804e1a7 */ // Cost-benefit analysis for EU Directive 2019/904 tethered bottle caps import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Economic Parameters") inputs = { @doc(
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: e17c8e2c-8aa7-43df-9e74-061b9ab5b080 */ // EU Directive 2019/904 Cost-Benefit Analysis Model import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest inputs = { @name("🏭 Industry Implementation Costs") @doc( "Costs for machinery upgrades, new designs, and retooling per manufacturer"
/* Generated by Squiggle AI. Workflow ID: 83619ef4-7db7-4db0-868e-a52ecacb9bc9 */ // Cost-benefit analysis of EU Directive 2019/904 tethered caps requirement import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Key Parameters") inputs = { @name("Industry Adaptation Costs (€)") @doc(
//Make a model of the future donations per year within the Effective Altruism community. Do this my making estimates of the number of major donors we'll have in the future, a distribution of how much each might donate per year, etc. import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @doc("Model of EA donation growth over time from 2024-2040") inputs = { @name("Base Year Donors (2024)") @doc( "Estimated number of significant EA donors in 2024, defined as those giving >$10k/year" )
// Estimate the costs and benefits of smoking cigarettes, vapes, marijuana, and recreational sex, 2x/week, as a high schooler. Make sure to include at least 3 different distinct costs and benefits. Put them in a table of total EV per item. import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest // Cost-benefit model for different activities @name("Activity Cost-Benefit Analysis") activities = { // Base monetary values & health impacts @doc("Value of one quality-adjusted life year, highly uncertain") qalyValue = 100k to 300k
/* Estimate the marginal costs and benefits of a regular human brushing their teeth 1 to 6 times per day. What number of times is optimal, in what situations? */ // Model for optimal tooth brushing frequency analysis import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Hours in Normal Day") @hide
/* If I get dark blinds for my room, it might help me sleep a bit better. Estimate the total hours I might save per year, of productivity, due to this change. */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Blinds Impact Model") inputs = { @name("Hours of sleep improvement per night (minutes)") @doc(
/* Cost-effectiveness of upgrading my laptop from an M1 Macbook Pro to an M4 Macbook Pro. This would cost $2k-$3k depending on the model. It would likely be 1.4x - 2x faster. This likely wouldn't make a difference to most of my work, but it would to my coding. I spend many 10hrs/week solid coding. I think this would make me more productive, come up with interesting ways to model this. */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Initial Model Inputs") inputs = { @name("💻 Base Cost") @doc("Cost of upgrading to M4 MacBook Pro")
/* Estimate the total damages done by AI enhancements, globally. First break it down into a bunch of interesting different categories. Make different models for the big / uncertain ones. */ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest // Key types of potential AI damages from near-term AI systems @name("AI Enhancement Damages Model") damages = { @name("Digital Security")
/* What is the expected value of a 30-year old male with 1 romantic partner per year, in SF, to get the Gardasil-9 vaccine? */ // Model to estimate value of Gardasil-9 vaccine for 30yo male in SF import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Key Inputs") inputs = { @name("Years of Protection")
/* I'm not used to drinking caffeine (no caffeine tolerance), but I'm fine with the flavors. I'm a 34-yr-old man. I'm going to do work for 3 hours. I'm at Starbucks. What drinks do you recommend? Make an estimate of the expected benefit of the 5 main options. Say, coffee, tea, frappe, chai, sparkling water.*/ import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("Drink Options Impact Model") inputs = { @name("Age (years)") age = 34
// What are the chances of the government starting a manhattan project for AGI in the next 10 years? Consider a few different pathways. import "hub:ozziegooen/sTest" as sTest @name("AGI Manhattan Project Probability Model") inputs = { @name("🌍 General AI Progress") @doc( "Estimate of how much general AI capability progress will happen in next 10 years" )