Variables

Data collected from https://claude.ai/share/276e2809-3b40-4985-b8db-1a9e606e02a1 Lower bound is well-established at >$600M by public grant databases. Upper bound is looser b/c it's hard to say how much companies are spending on alignment, or what even counts as alignment work.

The total cost is a mixture distribution, weighted as `costModel1Weight * lognormal(costParams1) + (1 - costModel1Weight) * lognormal(costParams2).

The difficulty of alignment is distributed across multiple orders of magnitude, but possibly with more weight on the low or high end, which can be determined using costModel1Weight. By default, the 90% CI spands $1B to $1T, with 25% of the weight on the lower half and 75% on the uppper half (on a log scale).