Models in Tractability-slash-TC-multiplier

// Can we build TC tractability from a series of comparisons?

// General uncertainty about TC tractability
base_uncertainty(t) = 0.25 to 4

// Easier to defend than create
defend_bonus = 1 to 4

// Easier to boost innovation system than pursue structural changes
nonstructural_bonus = 1 to 4

/*
BOTECs to estimate the Tractability of various Theories of Change
*/

// SYS_INN BOTEC
// Use historical example of Breakthrough Energy (BE), which influenced increasing ambition in innovation through the DoE around 2022.

peakEffectBE = 1% to 4%
shareOfUSInnovationPotentialDoE = 10% to 50%
effectDurationBE = 1 to 5

// BASED ON INN/AE WEIGHTS MODEL, EXTRACTED 8 JUL 2025
// Recreating innovation capacity and affectable emissions without the time adjustments, which can be made in the impact model

/*
Climate Policy vs Innovation Effectiveness Model
This model compares the relative effectiveness of domestic policy and innovation
on reducing emissions over time, based on historical data and future projections.
*/

// ==================== INNOVATION PARAMETERS ====================

// Is it valid to define Tractability{CLI} in relation to the magnitude of Tractability{InnSys}?

tractabilityInnSys = 1% to 5%

tractabilityCLI = 5^-0.5*((0.04 to 5)*5^0.5)^0.885 * (1% to 5%)

ratio = tractabilityCLI / tractabilityInnSys

compare = Plot.dists(
{