Models by zsp

// Zach. 2026 Sep 3.
// The result is greater than 1 because the worlds where Ant performs well are unfortunately the worlds where we already have more money -- because a large fraction of the endowment is in Anthropic.
// The result is driven by the fact that antPerformanceVsBaseline is higher-variance than nonAntPerformanceVsBaseline. If they were the same, we'd want 50% of the endowment in Ant and 50% in Non-Ant. Non-Ant is lower-variance; one angle on this is that it's like a basket of several investments with similar profiles to Anthropic, which are not fully correlated. The specific distributions for antPerformanceVsBaseline and nonAntPerformanceVsBaseline are important, but I haven't thought much about them. Relatedly, this model is about what happens from end-of-lockup-time to doing-philanthropy time, but I don't specify when doing-philanthropy time is. I suspect antPerformanceVsBaseline is too high-variance, so I fudge from the model's output of 1.45 down to 1.4.
// I assume log utility in money. For this reason, ratios are all that matter -- 1.01xing the endowment is equally valuable no matter how big the endowment is.
// Recall that this model is just about overexposure, assuming your Ant and non-Ant investments have similar expected returns; in reality there may be investments clearly better than Ant, like Ant-with-1.5x-leverage.
// I kinda pretend lockup ends 2027-04-01, but really it will be continuous. I assume that you either sell immediately-post-lockup or hold long-term. I optimistically assume that outside of Ant cofounders/staff nobody has Anthropic exposure post-lockup, but this is false.

longtermistEndowmentBeforeLockupEndsEXCLUDINGAntCofounderStaff = (40 to 80)
antMarketCapBeforeLockupEnds = (1000 to 6000)
antCofounderStaffOwnershipFraction = uniform(25%, 40%)