victorzhenyiwang

// Confidence intervals

// N Number of Actors (for scientific groups s, rogue states r, terrorist groups g, experts e, non-expert lone wolfs n)

number_scientific_groups = uniform(1000, 3150)
// lower: 100 BSL-4 and BSL-3+ labs working with the most dangerous viruses, plus 600 US BSL-3 and 1.5X for ROW
// upper: 100*1.5 = 150 BSL-4 and BSL-3+ labs to account for growth, plus 1000 US BSL-3 and 3X for ROW.

number_rogue_states = uniform(3, 8) // No nation acknowledges having offensive BW programmes and we exclude great powers like the US and China. FEMA notes 9 countires "suspected to [...] in some capacity" and FRI's survey (2023) saw the median forecaster expects 5-7 by 2030, but incl. US etc.