Models by morpheus

/*
Describe your code here
*/
max_years_until_impact = 60
// Idea: It feels like AI taking off makes the concept of time less useful as a variable in the scenarios where we get meaningful speedup in research before doom. In that case perhaps it would make sense to model it such as if AI is coming later in "progress years" so to the extend that it is possible to do faster bio research for those periods, it might be sensible to think of it in the same way as it does to think of it as having more time?

future_mass_before_agi(x) = 1 - cdf(Sym.lognormal(2.2, 2), x)
years_until_super_babies = Sym.lognormal(3, 0.7)
super_baby_growup = Sym.normal(18, 2)
grown_up_super_babies(x) = cdf(years_until_super_babies + super_baby_growup, x)