Models by mattvdm

voll = lognormal({p5: 10.6, p95:18.7}) // $/kWh
//via ERCOT/Brattle — their 95CI fitted to 90% CI due to squiggle idiosyncracies
threshold = 1*10^11 // $
lost_load_kWh = threshold / voll
lost_load_TWh = lost_load_kWh / 10^9
total_us_consumption_TWh = 4070


duration_multiplier = lognormal({p25:2.3, p75:3.2})
//via 

// GDP method

output_loss = lognormal({p10: 0.59, p90:1.7}) 

us_gdp = 27000000000000
scenario = 100000000000
/// whole US version
gdp_day = (us_gdp/365)
damages_per_day = gdp_day*output_loss
outage_days = scenario / damages_per_day

voll = lognormal({p10: 10.6, p90:18.7}) // $/kWh
threshold = 1*10^11 // $
lost_load_kWh = threshold / voll
lost_load_TWh = lost_load_kWh / 10^9
total_us_consumption_TWh = 4070
duration_multiplier = 2 to 5

total_us_blackout_duration = lost_load_TWh/total_us_consumption_TWh * 365 // outage-days

calendar_time = 3/12 to 3 // years

sandworm_headcount = 10 to 50

sandworm_technical_headcount_share = 0.2 to 0.6

sandworm_technical_headcount = sandworm_technical_headcount_share * sandworm_headcount

triton_technical_headcount = sandworm_technical_headcount * (0.2 to 0.8)

//2015 and 2015 grid attacks
calendar_time = 31/12 // years

total_headcount = 10 to 50 // inc non-technical staff

technical_headcount_share = 0.2 to 0.6

technical_headcount = technical_headcount_share * total_headcount

time_share_on_grid_attacks = 10% to 60%

calendar_time = 0.5 to 4.5 // years

technical_headcount = 20 to 50 

time_share = 20% to 100%

person_years_effort = time_share * technical_headcount * calendar_time

//upper bound 

calendar_time = 16/365 // years

technical_headcount = 1 to 2

time_share = 100%

person_years_effort = time_share * technical_headcount * calendar_time

damages_2015 = 0.1 to 10
damages_2016 = 0.01 to 1
damages_oct2022 = damages_2015

total = damages_2015 + damages_2016 + damages_oct2022

damages_2015 = 0.1 to 10

scope_factor = 1.2
duration_factor = 1/3

scale_factor = scope_factor * duration_factor

voll_discount = 1/(2 to 9) // v arbitrary

factor_2015_to_2016 = 1/(scale_factor * voll_discount)

m = 10^6

likelihood = 5% to 25%
duration = 2
annual_likelihood = 1-(1-likelihood)^(1/duration)
damages = 100*m to 1000*m
us_multiplier = 29 / 3.6
gbp_usd = 0.8 // GDP per USD

baseline_UK_damage = annual_likelihood * damages

m = 10 ^ 6

ukraine_duration = 3 to 6
ukraine_scope = 0.225 * m

us_damages = 7000 * m to 14000 * m
us_duration = 4 * 24
us_scope = 55 * m

scope_factor = us_scope / ukraine_scope