mattvdm

m = 10 ^ 6

ukraine_duration = 3 to 6
ukraine_scope = 0.225 * m

us_damages = 7000 * m to 14000 * m
us_duration = 4 * 24
us_scope = 55 * m

scope_factor = us_scope / ukraine_scope

m = 10^6

likelihood = 5% to 25%
duration = 2
annual_likelihood = 1-(1-likelihood)^(1/duration)
damages = 100*m to 1000*m
global_multiplier = 1/3.3%
// moderate_multiplier = 2
// severity_multiplier = 2 to 100