huw

// I want to model the cost and cost-effectiveness of Kaya Guides using LLMs, relative to both guided and unguided self-help

// Initial effect from unguided and guided self-help

study_credences = [67%, 11%, 11%, 11%]

initial_effect_guided_self_help = mixture(
  normal({ p5: 0.69, p95: 1.04 }),
  normal({ p5: 0.63, p95: 0.98 }),
  normal({ p5: 0.60, p95: 0.86 }),

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// INITIAL EFFECT //
////////////////////

// Studies give parameters as normal distributions, so we just need to mix them appropriately

study_credences = [67%, 11%, 11%, 11%]

initial_effect_individual = mixture(
  normal({ p5: 0.80, p95: 1.24 }),