/* Model for RFI question https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1475-how-many-german-language-disinformation-cases-originating-in-pro-kremlin-media-will-there-be-between-1-october-2024-and-30-september-2025-compared-to-the-same-period-one-year-prior */ /* Define question info */ dateStartPeriod = Date.make(2024,10,01) dateEndPeriod = Date.make(2025,09,30) previousYearsCounts = [67, 14, 82, 78] /* Input latest data */
/* Model for RFI question https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1463-in-the-next-12-months-will-a-large-language-model-built-by-a-chinese-organization-rank-in-the-top-3-overall-on-the-chatbot-arena-llm-leaderboard */ /* Using metaculus estimates for GPT5 release: I think they're reasonable. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15462/when-will-gpt5-be-announced/ */ dateLastUpdate = Date.make(2024, 12, 23) metaculusYearsNextGen_LB = toYears(Date.make(2025, 02, 03) - dateLastUpdate) metaculusYearsNextGen_UB = toYears(Date.make(2025, 08, 07) - dateLastUpdate) yearsUntilNextGenModels = metaculusYearsNextGen_LB to metaculusYearsNextGen_UB