Models by calebp

/*
For an AI coup to happen by 2035:
* Develop very powerful AI systems
* AI systems are catastrophically misaligned
* AI systems are deployed in a coup enabling context
* AI systems succesfully pull off a coup
*/

p_dev_powerful_ai_2035 = 0.8
p_cat_misalignment = 0.5

/*
Goal: estimate how many dollars in donations to LTFF are equivalent to one 
hour spent by a CEA employee

LTFF kindly published their marginal grants, and one of them was a (hypothetical)
grant for people to travel to a biosecurity workshop. Fortuitously, CEA staff have
recently spent some time helping with a biosecurity workshop.

This means we can estimate how many dollars the LTFF has to spend in order to 
improve a biosecurity workshop as much as CEA staff improves it by working one hour. 

/*
Describe your code here
*/

a = normal(2, 5)

/*
Botec for the number of casualties from plane crashes over 20 years
*/

num_passenger_plane_crashes_per_year = 0.1 to 3
size_of_passenger_plane = 100 to 400

casualties_per_year = num_passenger_plane_crashes_per_year *
  size_of_passenger_plane

/*
Describe your code here
*/

a = normal(2, 5)

// How much credit should different actors get on the EAIF and LTFF

default_portfolio = 0
ea_funds_portfolio = 1
total_impact = ea_funds_portfolio - default_portfolio

// stakeholders
// Linch, Me, ops team, fund managers

shapleyValue(player, valueFn, players) = {

  Danger.factorial = {|n|
    List.reduce(List.upTo(1, n), 1, {|acc, i| acc * i})
  }

  n = List.length(players)

  localShapleyVal = 0

/*
Describe your code here
*/

a = normal(2, 5)

// importance  = good done / % of a problem solved
// tractability = % of a problem solved / % increase in resources
// neglectedness = % increase in resources / extra person or dollar

impact(good_done, tractability, neglectedness)=good_done * tractability * neglectedness

Calculator.make(
{
  fn: impact,
           

/*
Describe your code here
*/

a = normal(2, 5)