Models by NunoSempere

std_mathematical_poll_uncertainty = 4.3/Math.sqrt(2)
std_passage_of_time = 0 // 2
std_uncertainty_poll_methodology = 0// 1.5
std = std_mathematical_poll_uncertainty + std_passage_of_time +
  std_uncertainty_poll_methodology

share_yes_today = normal(43, std)
share_yes_after_seeing_only_no_side = normal(38, std)
share_yes_after_seeing_only_yes_side = normal(53.69, std)
share_yes_seeing_both_sides = normal(49, std)

@name("Total amount of existential risk")
total_amount_of_existential_risk = beta(2,20)

@name("Willingness to pay to reduce all existential risk")
willingness_to_pay_to_reduce_all_existential_risk = 5B to 20B

willingness_to_pay_per_unit_of_existential_risk = willingness_to_pay_to_reduce_all_existential_risk /  total_amount_of_existential_risk

@name("Willingness to pay for a basis point of existential risk reduction, in M$")
willingness_to_pay_per_basis_point_of_existential_risk = willingness_to_pay_per_unit_of_existential_risk / (100 * 100) / 1M

// Common
@name("Black Swans per Decade")
black_swans_per_decade = 1 to 7
@name("Chance to Identify a Black Swan a Week to Two Months Beforehand")
chance_identify_a_week_to_two_months_beforehand = beta(5,10)
@name("Basis Points")
basis_points = 10k
@name("Cost of Sentinel per Year")
cost_of_sentinel_per_year = 150k to 500k
@name("Cost of Sentinel per Decade")

op_ppl = (40M to 120M) / (70k to 200k)
sff_ppl = (40M to 60M) / (70k to 200k)
fli_ppl = (1M to 30M) / (50k to 150k)
ltff_ppl = (3M to 7M) / (50k to 150k)
longview_ppl = (2M to 15M) / (50k to 150k)
manifund_ppl = (1M to 3M) / (30k to 200k)
small_funders_ppl = (5M to 40M) / (60k to 200k)
individual_funders_ppl = (5M to 40M) / (60k to 100k)
nsf_ppl = 5M / (40k to 150k)
dsit_ppl = (2M to 10.8M) / (40k to 100k)

ais_funding = 75M to 150M
average_salary_before_tax = 50k to 100k
salary_overhead = 0.95 to 1.1
ais_headcount = ais_funding / (average_salary_before_tax * salary_overhead)

num_arxiv_ml_authors_2024 = 7379
fraction_of_ml = beta(7.41986324742243, 114.487997692331) // fraction they are of the field. 0.03 to 0.1. https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
fraction_of_their_research_thats_relevant = beta(
  3.28962721497463,
  17.7686162987246

// Replicates <https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf>, and in particular the red line in page 11.
// I previously thought that Squiggle couldn't do this because of numerical precision, but this turns out not to be the case.

// Define the log-uniform
// (<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reciprocal_distribution>)
loguniform(a, b) = exp(uniform(log(a), log(b)))

// Estimates
rate_of_star_formation = loguniform(1, 100)
fraction_of_stars_with_planets = loguniform(0.1, 1)

/* Hello world */
low_bound_xrisk_funding = 3B to 15B
estimated_total_xrisk = beta(4.69161493088365, 22.7055822097144)
low_bound_willingness_to_pay_per_basis_point = low_bound_xrisk_funding /
  estimated_total_xrisk *
  (0.01 / 100)

max_people = 10M to 100M
cost_per_person = 20k to 200k
duration_years = 5 to 50

yearly_probability_revolt = Danger.laplace(1, 2023-1999)
half_yearly_probability_revolt_approx = yearly_probability_revolt/2

p_natural_death = 0.01

p = half_yearly_probability_revolt_approx + p_natural_death

yearly_probability = Danger.laplace(1, 2023-1945)
half_yearly_probability_approx = yearly_probability/2

// Likelihood that a ceasefire will start
numSuccesses = 0 // no ceasefire so far
numFailures = 530 // days since the 24th of February 2022
numFutureTrials = 146 // days until end of year

laplaceSuccessByNthTrial(successes, failures, numFutureTrials) = {
  numTrialsAlready = successes + failures
  numTrialsAtTheEnd = numTrialsAlready + numFutureTrials
  pAllFailures = (failures + 1) / (numTrialsAtTheEnd + 1)
  // e.g., 10 trials, 10 failures, 0 successes

yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(year) = beta(1, year-1960 + 2)
  // Danger.laplace(0, year-1960)

yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(year, recovery_period) = beta(2, year - 1960 - recovery_period + 2)

yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive(year, recovery_period) = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023)/2

{ 
  yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023: yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023),
  yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery: yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(2070, 30),

kcal_jumping_rope_minute = 15 to 20
kcal_jumping_rope_hour = kcal_jumping_rope_minute * 60

kcal_in_kg_of_fat = 7.7k
num_kg_of_fat_to_lose = 10

hours_jumping_rope_needed = kcal_in_kg_of_fat * num_kg_of_fat_to_lose /
  kcal_jumping_rope_hour

days_until_end_of_year = 152 // as of 2023-08-01