std_mathematical_poll_uncertainty = 4.3/Math.sqrt(2) std_passage_of_time = 0 // 2 std_uncertainty_poll_methodology = 0// 1.5 std = std_mathematical_poll_uncertainty + std_passage_of_time + std_uncertainty_poll_methodology share_yes_today = normal(43, std) share_yes_after_seeing_only_no_side = normal(38, std) share_yes_after_seeing_only_yes_side = normal(53.69, std) share_yes_seeing_both_sides = normal(49, std)
@name("Total amount of existential risk") total_amount_of_existential_risk = beta(2,20) @name("Willingness to pay to reduce all existential risk") willingness_to_pay_to_reduce_all_existential_risk = 5B to 20B willingness_to_pay_per_unit_of_existential_risk = willingness_to_pay_to_reduce_all_existential_risk / total_amount_of_existential_risk @name("Willingness to pay for a basis point of existential risk reduction, in M$") willingness_to_pay_per_basis_point_of_existential_risk = willingness_to_pay_per_unit_of_existential_risk / (100 * 100) / 1M
// Common @name("Black Swans per Decade") black_swans_per_decade = 1 to 7 @name("Chance to Identify a Black Swan a Week to Two Months Beforehand") chance_identify_a_week_to_two_months_beforehand = beta(5,10) @name("Basis Points") basis_points = 10k @name("Cost of Sentinel per Year") cost_of_sentinel_per_year = 150k to 500k @name("Cost of Sentinel per Decade")
op_ppl = (40M to 120M) / (70k to 200k) sff_ppl = (40M to 60M) / (70k to 200k) fli_ppl = (1M to 30M) / (50k to 150k) ltff_ppl = (3M to 7M) / (50k to 150k) longview_ppl = (2M to 15M) / (50k to 150k) manifund_ppl = (1M to 3M) / (30k to 200k) small_funders_ppl = (5M to 40M) / (60k to 200k) individual_funders_ppl = (5M to 40M) / (60k to 100k) nsf_ppl = 5M / (40k to 150k) dsit_ppl = (2M to 10.8M) / (40k to 100k)
ais_funding = 75M to 150M average_salary_before_tax = 50k to 100k salary_overhead = 0.95 to 1.1 ais_headcount = ais_funding / (average_salary_before_tax * salary_overhead) num_arxiv_ml_authors_2024 = 7379 fraction_of_ml = beta(7.41986324742243, 114.487997692331) // fraction they are of the field. 0.03 to 0.1. https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/ fraction_of_their_research_thats_relevant = beta( 3.28962721497463, 17.7686162987246
// Replicates <https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf>, and in particular the red line in page 11. // I previously thought that Squiggle couldn't do this because of numerical precision, but this turns out not to be the case. // Define the log-uniform // (<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reciprocal_distribution>) loguniform(a, b) = exp(uniform(log(a), log(b))) // Estimates rate_of_star_formation = loguniform(1, 100) fraction_of_stars_with_planets = loguniform(0.1, 1)
/* Hello world */ low_bound_xrisk_funding = 3B to 15B estimated_total_xrisk = beta(4.69161493088365, 22.7055822097144) low_bound_willingness_to_pay_per_basis_point = low_bound_xrisk_funding / estimated_total_xrisk * (0.01 / 100) max_people = 10M to 100M cost_per_person = 20k to 200k duration_years = 5 to 50
yearly_probability_revolt = Danger.laplace(1, 2023-1999) half_yearly_probability_revolt_approx = yearly_probability_revolt/2 p_natural_death = 0.01 p = half_yearly_probability_revolt_approx + p_natural_death
yearly_probability = Danger.laplace(1, 2023-1945) half_yearly_probability_approx = yearly_probability/2
// Likelihood that a ceasefire will start numSuccesses = 0 // no ceasefire so far numFailures = 530 // days since the 24th of February 2022 numFutureTrials = 146 // days until end of year laplaceSuccessByNthTrial(successes, failures, numFutureTrials) = { numTrialsAlready = successes + failures numTrialsAtTheEnd = numTrialsAlready + numFutureTrials pAllFailures = (failures + 1) / (numTrialsAtTheEnd + 1) // e.g., 10 trials, 10 failures, 0 successes
yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(year) = beta(1, year-1960 + 2) // Danger.laplace(0, year-1960) yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(year, recovery_period) = beta(2, year - 1960 - recovery_period + 2) yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive(year, recovery_period) = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023)/2 { yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023: yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023), yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery: yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(2070, 30),
kcal_jumping_rope_minute = 15 to 20 kcal_jumping_rope_hour = kcal_jumping_rope_minute * 60 kcal_in_kg_of_fat = 7.7k num_kg_of_fat_to_lose = 10 hours_jumping_rope_needed = kcal_in_kg_of_fat * num_kg_of_fat_to_lose / kcal_jumping_rope_hour days_until_end_of_year = 152 // as of 2023-08-01