ID

Name

Cluster

Description

Creating a Text Shorthand for Uncertainty

Graphical Assumption Modeling

Prediction-Augmented Evaluation Systems

What if people simply forecasted your future choices?

Stabilize-Reflect-Execute

Overconfident talking down, humble or hostile talking up

Three Kinds of Research Documents: Exploration, Explanation, Academic

The RAIN Framework for Informational Effectiveness

The Prediction Pyramid: Why Fundamental Work is Needed for Prediction Work

Can We Place Trust in Post-AGI Forecasting Evaluations?

Predictive Reasoning Systems

Impact Prizes as an alternative to Certificates of Impact

Conversation on forecasting with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

Shallow Review of Consistency in Statement Evaluation

Introducing http://foretold.io/: A New Open-Source Prediction Registry

Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration Part 2

Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration Part 1

Predictably Predictable Futures Talk: Using Expected Loss & Prediction Innovation for Long Term Benefits

Multivariate estimation & the Squiggly language

Expansive translations: considerations and possibilities

Open Communication in the Days of Malicious Online Actors

Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes?

Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle

Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.

Are the social sciences challenging because of fundamental difficulties or because of imposed ones?

Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize

Predicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment.

Squiggle: An overview

Squiggle: Technical Overview

Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations

An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work

Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)

Big List of Cause Candidates

Evaluations Blog Post: Quantifying the Value of Evaluations

2020: Forecasting in Review

A Funnel for Cause Candidates

Forecasting Prize Results

Introducing Metaforecasting: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool

Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners

Questions are tools to help answerers optimize utility

Oracles, Informers, and Controllers

The Practice & Virtue of Discernment

Two Definitions of Generalization

2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?

What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?

Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations

Contribution-Adjusted Utility Maximization Funds: An Early Proposal

AI Safety Papers: An App for the TAI Safety Database

Information Assets

Building Blocks of Utility Maximization

Prioritization Research for Advancing Wisdom and Intelligence

An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions

Disagreeables and Assessors: Two Intellectual Archetypes

Improve delegation abilities today, delegate heavily tomorrow

Simple comparison polling to create utility functions

Ambitious Altruistic Software Engineering Efforts: Opportunities and Benefits

Opportunity Costs of Technical Talent: Intuition and (Simple) Implications

Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives

External Evaluation of the EA Wiki

Why don't governments seem to mind that companies are explicitly trying to make AGIs?

Can/should we automate most human decisions, pre-AGI?

13 Very Different Stances on AGI

EA/Rationalist Safety Nets: Promising, but Arduous

Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021.