ID

Name

Cluster

Description

$1 Open Philanthropy - 2020 (longtermism)

The marginal value of $1, from Open Philanthropy longtermism, in the year 2020

$1 Open Philanthropy - 2023 (longtermism)

The marginal value of $1, from Open Philanthropy longtermism, in the year 2023

$1 Long-Term Future Fund (EA Funds) - 2020

The marginal value of $1, from Long-Term Future Fund (EA Funds), in the year 2020

$1 Long-Term Future Fund (EA Funds) - 2023

The marginal value of $1, from Long-Term Future Fund (EA Funds), in the year 2023

$1 Animal Fund (EA Funds) - 2020

The marginal value of $1, from Long-Term Future Fund (EA Funds), in the year 2020

$1 Animal Fund (EA Funds) - 2023

The marginal value of $1, from Long-Term Future Fund (EA Funds), in the year 2023

$1 EA Infrastructure Fund (EA Funds) - 2020

The marginal value of $1, from EA Infrastructure Fund (EA Funds), in the year 2020

$1 EA Infrastructure Fund (EA Funds) - 2023

The marginal value of $1, from EA Infrastructure Fund (EA Funds), in the year 2023

$1 Global Health and Development (EA Funds) - 2020

The marginal value of $1, from Global Health and Development (EA Funds), in the year 2020. Consider flow-though impacts, like longtermist benefits.

$1 Global Health and Development (EA Funds) (Direct Impacts) - 2020

The marginal value of $1, from Global Health and Development (EA Funds), in the year 2020. Only consider direct impacts.

1 Microdoom

+1/1 Mil chance of human extinction, via one risk event. For example, reducing the risk of a certain Nuclear catastrophe.

1 Microtopia

+1/1 Mil chance of a positive (expected) AGI outcome. If it's assumed that this will decrease our future chance of many risks, then this might be expected to dramatically decreate human extinction. This might be expected to be very positive for humanity.

1 Universal Microtopia

One microtopia, assuming that we will be able to have full control over the universe. For example, we assume that aliens will not be an issue.

1 Microhell

+1/1 Mil chance of a continuously negative-EV long-term outcome. This might look like many beings, on average, being tortured for 10^n years.

1 Universal Microhell

One microhell, assuming that we will be able to have full control over the universe. For example, we assume that aliens will not be an issue.

Human QALY

1 Quality Average Life Year of a Human

Human Life

1 Year of Life of a Human

Cow QALY

1 Quality Average Life Year of a Cow

Cow Life

1 Year of Life of a Cow

Cow Farmed Life

1 Year of Life of a Cow raised for food. It's assumed it's a factory farm or similar.

Cow 100 Cal of Food

100 calories of Cow meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Cow 1lb Meat

1 pound of Cow meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Pig QALY

1 Quality Average Life Year of a Pig

Pig Life

1 Year of Life of a Pig

Pig Farmed Life

1 Year of Life of a Pig raised for food. It's assumed it's a factory farm or similar.

Pig 100 Cal of Food

100 calories of Pig meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Pig 1lb Meat

1 pound of Pig meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Chicken QALY

1 Quality Average Life Year of a Chicken

Chicken Life

1 Year of Life of a Chicken

Chicken Farmed Life

1 Year of Life of a Chicken raised for food. It's assumed it's a factory farm or similar.

Chicken 100 Cal of Food

100 calories of Chicken meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Chicken 1lb Meat

1 pound of Chicken meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Turkey QALY

1 Quality Average Life Year of a Turkey

Turkey Life

1 Year of Life of a Turkey

Turkey Farmed Life

1 Year of Life of a Turkey raised for food. It's assumed it's a factory farm or similar.

Turkey 100 Cal of Food

100 calories of Turkey meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Turkey 1lb Meat

1 pound of Turkey meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Salmon QALY

1 Quality Average Life Year of a Salmon

Salmon Life

1 Year of Life of a Salmon

Salmon Farmed Life

1 Year of Life of a Salmon raised for food. It's assumed it's a factory farm or similar.

Salmon 100 Cal of Food

100 calories of Salmon meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Salmon 1lb Meat

1 pound of Salmon meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Shrimp QALY

1 Quality Average Life Year of a Shrimp

Shrimp Life

1 Year of Life of a Shrimp

Shrimp Farmed Life

1 Year of Life of a Shrimp raised for food. It's assumed it's a factory farm or similar.

Shrimp 100 Cal of Food

100 calories of Shrimp meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

Shrimp 1lb Meat

1 pound of Shrimp meat. It's assumed the animal was raised for food.

External Evaluation of the EA Wiki

Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives

Simple comparison polling to create utility functions

Prioritization Research for Advancing Wisdom and Intelligence

Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations

2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?

Introducing Metaforecasting: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool

Big List of Cause Candidates

Multivariate estimation & the Squiggly language

Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration Part 2

Introducing http://foretold.io/: A New Open-Source Prediction Registry

Conversation on forecasting with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

Prediction-Augmented Evaluation Systems

Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions

Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers

Metaforecast

Metaforecast Twitter Bot

Squiggle

Foretold.io

QuantifiedUncertainty.org

Utility Function Extractor

AI Safety Papers

Ken

Guesstimate