Models in sentinel

crises__per_decade = 1 to 7
chance_sentinel_identifies_a_crisis_a_week_to_two_months_beforehand = beta(3,10)

people_affected = truncateRight(10M to 8B, 8B)
share_of_their_life_affectd = beta(1, 20)
chance_we_can_avert_or_mitigate_catastrophic_risk = beta(2,10)
how_much_averted = beta(1,50)

expected_impact_in_lives = crises__per_decade * 
  chance_sentinel_identifies_a_crisis_a_week_to_two_months_beforehand *

crises__per_decade = 1 to 7
chance_sentinel_identifies_a_crisis_a_week_to_two_months_beforehand = beta(6,10)

// Large scale catastrophe
chance_crisis_is_catastrophic_but_not_existential = beta(3, 100) 
badness_of_catastrophic_risk_vs_existential = 0.1

// Existential catastrophe
chance_crisis_is_existential = beta(1, 100)