Models in Miscellaneous

/*
What do our beliefs about Sys/Surg imply about the other?
*/

// Inputs
surg_leverage = 5 to 20
surg_effectiveness_multiplier = 1.5 to 5
innovation_potential_us = 1.8B * (0.25 to 4) // All-time emissions averted by US innovation system each year, in expectation
us_energy_innovation_budget = 8B to 12.5B
state_capture = beta(3, 6) // Share of innpot due to govt spending

/*
Nov 2025
*/

boost = 1 + (0.1 to 1)

// Under the simple version, all orgs get the same boost.
// to test the max difference this could make,
// compare (1) longterm FB boost
// and (2) Gen Capacity boost, which should be the lowest

p =.3% to 3% // Percentage
pop = 2M to 16M // Species population
a = 1/(0.2 to 0.3125) // index -- typically 0.25 is used, ie. f^0.25 of species live in fraction 0.5 of the habitat.
total_area = 10M to 15M // global rainforest area in sqkm
fraction = (1-(1-p)^a)/(p*pop) // fraction of forest that must be destroyed to extinct one species
area_per_extinction = total_area * fraction // in sqkm