Models in Damage-Adjustment

baseline_hedginess = 1.2
hedginess_exponent = 0.5 to 2
hedginess = baseline_hedginess ^ hedginess_exponent

ratio = 1.34 to 3.33
median_ratio_1 = Math.sqrt(1.34*3.33)
median_ratio_2 = exp(Math.sqrt(log(1.34)*log(3.33)))

p5_1 = log(1.34)/log(median_ratio_1) // should be close to 0.5
p95_1 = log(3.33)/log(median_ratio_1) // should be close to 2

/*
BOTEC for the effect of US policy on global warming outcomes
*/

// Comparing repeal of Biden policies "Frozen policy" to not repealing ("Current policies scenarios (moderate)"), using REPEAT projections.
// https://repeatproject.org/results?comparison=benchmark&state=national&page=1&limit=25

// Leaning on claims from "Climate at the Crossroads" about how US outcomes may have knock-on global effects.

pre_2035 = 2.5*(2*0.61+1.14) // US emissions reductions 2025-2035 (Gt), assuming linear 2025-2030 and 2030-2035.

/*
Using Breakthrough Institute-cited estimates of 2100 warming under current vs stated policy as a proxy for what is at stake with international agreements.
*/

warming_current_policy = mx(mx((2 to 3.8), (2.4 to 4.4), (2.1 to 3.9), (2.1 to 3.9), (2.4 to 4.4), [1,1,1,1,1]), mx((2.3 to 4.4), (2.4 to 4.2), [1,1]),[5,2])

warming_stated_policy = mx(mx((1.9 to 3.4), (2.1 to 3.7), (1.9 to 3.0), mx((2.0 to 3.4), (1.8 to 2.9), [1,1]),(1.8 to 3.4), [1,1,1,1,1]), mx((1.8 to 3.3), (1.8 to 3.3), [1,1]),[5,2])

effect_of_stated_policy = mean(warming_current_policy) - mean(warming_stated_policy)

/*
Creating a mixture of RCP warming distributions to approximate our overall 2100 warming distribution
*/
// Define the RCP distributions
@name("RCP 2.6")
rcp2 = normal({mean: 1.75, stdev: 0.43})

@name("RCP 3.4")
rcp3 = normal({mean: 2.2, stdev: 0.5})