/* BOTEC for the effect of US policy on global warming outcomes */ // Comparing repeal of Biden policies "Frozen policy" to not repealing ("Current policies scenarios (moderate)"), using REPEAT projections. // https://repeatproject.org/results?comparison=benchmark&state=national&page=1&limit=25 // Leaning on claims from "Climate at the Crossroads" about how US outcomes may have knock-on global effects. pre_2035 = 2.5*(2*0.61+1.14) // US emissions reductions 2025-2035 (Gt), assuming linear 2025-2030 and 2030-2035.
/* Using Breakthrough Institute-cited estimates of 2100 warming under current vs stated policy as a proxy for what is at stake with international agreements. */ warming_current_policy = mx(mx((2 to 3.8), (2.4 to 4.4), (2.1 to 3.9), (2.1 to 3.9), (2.4 to 4.4), [1,1,1,1,1]), mx((2.3 to 4.4), (2.4 to 4.2), [1,1]),[5,2]) warming_stated_policy = mx(mx((1.9 to 3.4), (2.1 to 3.7), (1.9 to 3.0), mx((2.0 to 3.4), (1.8 to 2.9), [1,1]),(1.8 to 3.4), [1,1,1,1,1]), mx((1.8 to 3.3), (1.8 to 3.3), [1,1]),[5,2]) effect_of_stated_policy = mean(warming_current_policy) - mean(warming_stated_policy)
/* Creating a mixture of RCP warming distributions to approximate our overall 2100 warming distribution */ // Define the RCP distributions @name("RCP 2.6") rcp2 = normal({mean: 1.75, stdev: 0.43}) @name("RCP 3.4") rcp3 = normal({mean: 2.2, stdev: 0.5})