/*
Describe your code here
*/
bps = 10k
bps_per_bn_bar = 0.5 to 50
risk_window = 30 // probably makes sense for this to be a distribution, e.g. TAI timelines or similar
bio_x_risk = 0.001% to 0.1% // annual biorisk during risk window, Luca (previously ASB: (0.1% to 10%)/risk_window)
risk_reduction = lognormal({p25: 2%, p75: 5%})
speedup = 1 to 10 // BSG's
probability_maturity = 5% to 50% // probability far-UVC reaches maturity
default_maturity = 10 to 50 // number of years to maturity conditional on it happening
prob_maturity_in_window = cdf(default_maturity-speedup,risk_window)*probability_maturity
//Discounting
discount_rate = 0.13% // Ord implies (1/6-1/30))/100 = 0.13%
// Result
bps_at_stake = bps*bio_x_risk*speedup*risk_reduction*prob_maturity_in_window