Version from Jun 12 2024, 10:47. Squiggle 0.9.4.
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/*
Describe your code here
*/
bps = 10k
bps_per_bn_bar = 0.5 to 50

risk_window = 30 // probably makes sense for this to be a distribution, e.g. TAI timelines or similar
bio_x_risk = 0.001% to 0.1% // annual biorisk during risk window, Luca (previously ASB: (0.1% to 10%)/risk_window)

risk_reduction = lognormal({p25: 2%, p75: 5%})

speedup = 1 to 10 // BSG's

probability_maturity = 5% to 50% // probability far-UVC reaches maturity
default_maturity = 10 to 50 // number of years to maturity conditional on it happening
prob_maturity_in_window = cdf(default_maturity-speedup,risk_window)*probability_maturity

//Discounting
discount_rate = 0.13% // Ord implies (1/6-1/30))/100 = 0.13%

// Result
bps_at_stake = bps*bio_x_risk*speedup*risk_reduction*prob_maturity_in_window
simulation #3 in 93ms
bps
10K
bps_per_bn_bar
0.51to54
Distribution plot
risk_window
30
bio_x_risk
1.1·10-5to10·10-4
Distribution plot
risk_reduction
0.01to0.093
Distribution plot
speedup
0.96to10
Distribution plot
probability_maturity
0.049to0.5
Distribution plot
default_maturity
10to50
Distribution plot
prob_maturity_in_window
0.039to0.4
Distribution plot
discount_rate
0.13%
bps_at_stake
6·10-4to0.28
Distribution plot
discounted_bps_at_stake
5.8·10-4to0.27
Distribution plot
wtp
46Kto110M
Distribution plot
usg_spend_needed
5.3Bto49B
Distribution plot
leverage_bsg
9.6to150
Distribution plot
spend_needed
68Mto2.4B
Distribution plot
result_bps_bn
8.5·10-4to1.2
Distribution plot
size_of_field
30M
speedup_cost_ratio
0.1to4.9
Distribution plot
cost_of_speedup
6.7Mto600M
Distribution plot
speedup_cost
100M
prob_clear_bar
0.058